Money walkthrough

Healthcare Costs in Retirement: How to Plan

This walkthrough prices healthcare costs in retirement across three separate phases: the pre-Medicare bridge, the Medicare years, and long-term care risk.

Two pairs of brown-framed reading glasses, a compartmented pill organizer, a coiled black stethoscope, a blank spiral notepad with a silver pen and a stack of pale blue folders on a light wooden table
What's in this walkthrough
  1. Why healthcare is the line most retirement plans get wrong
  2. The three phases and why they are different problems
  3. Phase one: the bridge years before Medicare
  4. What the bridge actually costs
  5. Four ways people cover the bridge years
  6. Phase two: what Medicare covers structurally
  7. The two routes once you are eligible
  8. What Medicare does not cover
  9. Illustrative healthcare totals by planning line
  10. Where an illustrative Medicare dollar goes
  11. The income related surcharge and its two year lookback
  12. How a Roth conversion collides with the surcharge
  13. Enrollment windows matter more than the prices
  14. Phase three: long term care as a separate risk
  15. What long term care costs in illustrative terms
  16. Three ways people plan for long term care
  17. The health savings account as the purpose built vehicle
  18. Why investing the HSA rather than spending it is the lever
  19. The rule that ends HSA contributions
  20. Putting a number in the plan
  21. Why healthcare inflation deserves its own assumption
  22. Stress testing the number you chose
  23. A rough sequence by distance from retirement
  24. Where a calculator helps and where it cannot
  25. Who to talk to and what to ask
  26. The bottom line

Most retirement plans handle healthcare the way a shopping list handles rent. It appears as a line, it gets a round number, and the number is chosen because it looks reasonable rather than because anything produced it. That is understandable, because the honest answer to what healthcare will cost you is that nobody knows. It is also the reason healthcare quietly ends up being the largest source of uncertainty in an otherwise careful plan, and the reason a plan that survives every other stress test can still fall apart.

This walkthrough treats the question the way it deserves to be treated: as three separate problems that happen to share a word. The years before Medicare coverage begins are an insurance problem. The Medicare years are a coverage-design and income-timing problem. Long-term care is a risk problem, and it is the one most plans skip entirely. Every dollar figure here is illustrative, chosen to show the shape of the arithmetic rather than to state a current price, because premiums, deductibles, surcharge tiers, enrollment windows, and health savings account limits are all reset regularly and vary by where you live. Confirm current figures with Medicare’s official information, price your real options with a licensed insurance counsellor, and take the tax side to a qualified professional. The calculator here handles the growth side of the problem, which is the part that is genuinely computable.

Key takeaways

  • Healthcare in retirement is three separate problems, not one: covering yourself before Medicare eligibility, designing and paying for Medicare coverage once eligible, and long-term care, which Medicare largely does not cover.
  • The pre-Medicare bridge is the expensive phase almost nobody budgets for. An illustrative couple retiring three years early at $800 per person per month spends roughly $57,600 before Medicare coverage even starts.
  • Premiums for some Medicare parts carry an income-related surcharge set from a tax return filed about two years earlier, so a conversion or a large gain at 63 can raise a bill at 65.
  • An HSA used as a long-term investment rather than a spending account is the lever. An illustrative $4,000 a year for 20 years at an assumed 6 percent reaches about $147,100 against $80,000 contributed.
  • Give healthcare its own inflation assumption. Two illustrative points above general prices add roughly $98,400 to a 25-year household line that would otherwise total $350,000.

Why healthcare is the line most retirement plans get wrong

Every other major expense in retirement behaves. Housing is largely known. Food and transport move slowly and predictably. Travel is discretionary, which means it can be cut in a bad year. Healthcare has none of those properties. It is not discretionary, it does not move with the general price level, and its distribution is lopsided in a way that averages hide badly: most years cost something modest, and a small number of years cost an amount that can reshape a plan.

That combination is what makes a single averaged number misleading. If you budget the average and experience the average, you are fine. If you budget the average and experience a bad decade, the shortfall arrives at exactly the age when your capacity to earn more has gone. Our breakdown of how long retirement savings last shows how sensitive a withdrawal plan is to a spending line that grows faster than assumed, and healthcare is the line most likely to do that.

The response is not a better forecast, because a better forecast is not available. It is a structure: separate the phases, put a defensible placeholder in each, give the whole thing its own inflation rate, and then stress-test it rather than trusting it. That is the shape of the rest of this walkthrough.

The three phases and why they are different problems

Phase one runs from the day you stop working to the day Medicare coverage begins. If those dates are the same, this phase does not exist for you and you can skip it. If you retire early, it can be several years long and it is the most expensive stretch per year of your entire retirement, because you are buying coverage in the open market with no employer paying part of the premium.

Phase two runs from the start of Medicare coverage for the rest of your life. It is cheaper per year than phase one, but it is much longer, so it usually holds the largest total. It is also where design choices matter: which parts you take, whether you pair the original parts with a supplemental policy or choose an all-in-one alternative, and how your income in earlier years affects the premiums you are billed.

Phase three is long-term care, and it does not sit on a timeline at all. It is a risk, not a schedule. It may never happen; it may happen for a month; it may happen for years. Treating it as an expense line understates it, and treating it as a certainty overstates it. It belongs in a plan as a contingency with a chosen size, which is a different kind of entry from the other two.

A curved wooden footbridge with plank decking and a railing crossing calm water, disappearing into heavy blue fog
The years between the last paycheque and the start of Medicare coverage are a bridge you pay for yourself, and the far end is harder to see than the near end.

Phase one: the bridge years before Medicare

Retiring before Medicare eligibility means buying your own coverage, and that is a shock to almost everyone who has spent a career on an employer plan. On an employer plan you saw a payroll deduction. The employer was paying a large share you never saw on a payslip. Remove that and the full price appears at once, in a market where the price also depends on your age, your location, and in some cases your income.

There is no way around the arithmetic. If you plan to stop working three years before coverage begins, you need three years of premiums plus three years of whatever cost sharing you actually use, and you need it in cash or in accessible savings. This is the phase that turns an otherwise workable early retirement into an unworkable one, and it is almost always discovered late, because retirement calculators tend to model a single spending figure that starts on the retirement date and never changes shape.

It also interacts with your withdrawal plan in an awkward way. Individual market coverage is frequently income-tested, so the amount you pull from a traditional account, or the size of a Roth conversion, can change your premium in the same year. That makes the bridge years the exact years where tax planning and healthcare planning stop being separate activities.

What the bridge actually costs

Put an illustrative number on it. Take a couple who both stop working at 62 with coverage beginning at 65, and use a placeholder of $800 per person per month for all-in cost, meaning premium plus typical cost sharing rather than premium alone. That is $9,600 per person per year, $19,200 for the household, and $57,600 across the three years.

That figure deserves two warnings. The first is that $800 is a placeholder, not a quote. Real prices vary enormously by state, by age, by plan design, and by whether you qualify for income-tested help, so the only way to know your number is to price actual options in your area. The second is that the placeholder covers the routine case. It does not cover a year with a hospital stay, which is what the cost-sharing maximum on your chosen plan exists to cap, and knowing that cap is more useful than knowing the premium.

Notice what $57,600 represents in a plan. At an illustrative 4 percent initial withdrawal rate, that spending needs roughly $480,000 of portfolio behind it if it were permanent, but it is not permanent, so the honest way to hold it is as a separate cash-like reserve sized to the bridge rather than as a permanent increase in the withdrawal rate. Our retirement number walkthrough covers why lumpy, time-limited spending belongs outside the sustainable-withdrawal calculation.

Four ways people cover the bridge years

There are broadly four routes, and their prices differ by more than most people expect. The first is continuing an employer plan for a limited period after leaving. This preserves the plan you know but usually at the full unsubsidised cost, which is precisely the number that shocks people, and it runs for a limited window rather than indefinitely.

The second is joining a spouse’s or partner’s employer plan, which is often the cheapest route by a wide margin and is the single reason many couples stagger their retirement dates deliberately. The third is buying an individual policy on the open market, where the price may be income-tested and where plan design choices between premium and cost sharing become yours to make. The fourth is taking a part-time or seasonal role that carries coverage, which some people find is worth doing for the coverage alone even when the wage is beside the point.

Comparing them properly means comparing total expected cost, not premiums. A cheap premium with a high deductible and a high out-of-pocket maximum is not cheap in the year you need care. A licensed insurance counsellor can price the real options where you live, and that is work worth doing a year before you leave rather than a month before.

Phase two: what Medicare covers structurally

Medicare is not one policy. It is a set of parts, and understanding the structure matters far more than memorising any current price, because the prices change every year and the structure does not.

One part covers inpatient hospital care and certain related services. A second part covers outpatient and physician services, preventive care, and much of what people think of as ordinary medical treatment. Prescription drug coverage is a separate layer rather than something bundled automatically. Beyond that, you face a design choice: pair the original parts with a supplemental policy that covers some of the cost sharing the original parts leave to you, or take an all-in-one alternative offered by a private insurer that bundles the parts and often the drug coverage into a single plan with its own network and its own rules.

Neither route is universally better, which is why the choice exists. The supplemental route generally means higher predictable monthly cost and lower surprise cost, with wide provider access. The all-in-one route generally means lower monthly cost with more cost sharing when you use care, and a network that constrains which providers you can see. Which suits you depends on your health, your travel patterns, your providers, and your tolerance for variable bills. Confirm what each option includes and costs in your area through Medicare’s official information rather than any summary.

The two routes once you are eligible

The design decision above deserves its own attention, because it is the one place in phase two where you have real control over the cost profile. Think of it as choosing where on the spectrum between fixed and variable cost you want to sit.

Paying more each month for supplemental coverage converts an unknown into a known. If a bad year arrives, the bills are much smaller than they would otherwise have been, and your budget line barely moves. The price of that certainty is that you pay it in every year, including all the years nothing happens. Paying less each month and accepting more cost sharing is the opposite bet: cheaper in the many ordinary years, more expensive in the rare bad one.

There is a second dimension that is easy to underweight. Some of these decisions are much easier to make once than to reverse later, because moving between routes can involve conditions that did not apply at first eligibility. That asymmetry means the first choice carries more weight than a straightforward annual comparison would suggest, and it is a strong argument for taking the decision to a licensed counsellor rather than picking on price alone.

What Medicare does not cover

The gaps matter as much as the coverage. Routine dental work, routine vision including glasses, and hearing aids sit largely outside the original parts, and for many households those three add up to a real annual number that never appears in a retirement projection. Some all-in-one plans include limited benefits in these areas, which is one of their genuine selling points, but the limits are usually well below what the services actually cost.

Care received outside the country is generally not covered in the way people assume, which matters for anyone planning extended travel or part-year residence abroad. And the largest gap is long-term custodial care, covered in its own sections below, because it is a different problem rather than a bigger version of the same one.

The planning response to a gap is not to panic about it. It is to price it and put it in the number. If your household spends a predictable amount on glasses, dental work, and hearing support each year, that is a known cost with a known escalation rate, and it belongs in the placeholder from the start rather than being discovered as an overrun.

Illustrative healthcare totals by planning line

The chart below sets the phases side by side using the placeholders from this walkthrough, so the relative sizes are visible. It assumes a couple, coverage beginning at 65, and a planning horizon to age 90, which is a choice rather than a prediction. The long-term care rows are for one person at an illustrative $6,000 a month, held at three different durations, because duration is the variable that dominates that risk.

Illustrative healthcare totals by planning line

Couple retiring at 62, coverage from 65, horizon to 90. Long-term care rows are one person at $6,000 a month. All figures illustrative.

Medicare years with escalation~$448,400
Medicare years priced flat~$350,000
Long-term care, 4 years~$288,000
Long-term care, 2.5 years~$180,000
Long-term care, 1 year~$72,000
Pre-Medicare bridge, 3 years~$57,600

Bar widths are each row's value as a share of the largest row. The Medicare-years figure uses $7,000 per person in the first year rising two percentage points faster than general prices; priced flat in today's dollars the same 25 years total $350,000. Every figure is a teaching placeholder, not a price.

Three things fall out of that picture. The Medicare years hold the largest total simply because they are the longest, which means small errors in the annual figure compound into large errors in the plan. The escalation row is not a detail: the difference between the top two bars is roughly $98,400, created by nothing but an assumption about relative inflation. And a moderate long-term care event for one person, at $180,000, is larger than the entire pre-Medicare bridge and larger than most contingency lines in a typical plan.

Where an illustrative Medicare dollar goes

It helps to see the annual figure broken apart, because the components behave differently. The split below is an illustrative allocation of the $14,000 household figure used throughout, chosen to show the structure rather than to report a measured breakdown, and the three shares sum to 100.

An illustrative $14,000 household Medicare-year figure, split three ways

A teaching allocation, not a measured breakdown. Shares sum to 100.

50% 30% 20%
Premiums for the parts you choose, $7,000 Cost sharing when you use care, $4,200 What the parts largely leave out, $2,800

Premiums are the most predictable slice and the one an income surcharge can raise. Cost sharing is the volatile slice and the one your coverage design controls. The third slice covers dental, vision, hearing and similar items and is easy to omit from a plan entirely.

The value of splitting it this way is that each slice has a different lever attached. The premium slice responds to which coverage route you choose and to your income two years earlier. The cost-sharing slice responds to your health and to the plan design you selected. The third slice responds to nothing except whether you remembered to include it, which is why it is the one most often missing from a projection.

Here is the mechanism that catches careful planners, and it is worth understanding precisely because it is where healthcare planning collides with tax planning.

Premiums for some Medicare parts are not flat. Above certain income thresholds, an additional amount is added, and it rises in steps rather than smoothly, which means crossing a threshold by a small amount can cost the same as crossing it by a large amount. The income used to decide this is generally taken from a tax return filed roughly two years earlier. So the premium you are billed in one year reflects a decision you made two years before that, at an age when Medicare may not have been on your mind at all.

Put an illustrative number on the effect. Suppose a surcharge of $150 per month per person applies for a single year. That is $1,800 per person, $3,600 for a couple, for one year, triggered by a single year’s income figure. The actual thresholds and surcharge amounts are set annually and there are several tiers, so treat that $150 purely as a shape and confirm the current tiers with Medicare. There is also a process for asking that the figure be reconsidered when a life event has changed your income, which is worth knowing exists.

How a Roth conversion collides with the surcharge

This is where two good ideas interfere with each other. Converting pre-tax money to a Roth in a low-income year is one of the most reliable tax moves available, and our walkthrough on doing a Roth conversion sets out why. The problem is that the years most attractive for conversions, namely the early retirement years before benefits and required distributions begin, are exactly the years whose income will later be looked back at to set Medicare premiums.

The consequence is not that conversions are a bad idea. It is that the conversion decision has one more cost input than most people include. If a conversion pushes that year’s income across a surcharge threshold, the true cost of the conversion is the income tax plus the surcharge you and any spouse will pay two years later. On the illustration above, $3,600 of surcharge on a couple is a real number that a conversion calculator will not show you.

The practical technique is the same one that works for tax bands: convert in partial amounts sized to stop below the threshold rather than converting a round number and discovering the consequence later. The same logic applies to selling a property, exercising options, or realising a large gain. Anything that creates a one-off income spike in the lookback years deserves the same check, and the interactions here are complex enough that they belong with a qualified tax professional.

A spiral-bound desk calendar with a faint grid of numbers, a stethoscope lying in front of it, three stacks of coins and a pale blue piggy bank on a white surface in cool light
The calendar is the part people miss. Income recorded in one year sets a premium billed roughly two years later, so the decision and the bill sit far apart.

Enrollment windows matter more than the prices

Prices change every year and you will look them up when the time comes. Enrollment windows are different, because missing one can attach a permanent consequence rather than a one-off cost.

The structure to understand is that there is an initial window tied to eligibility, there are later windows for changing certain choices, and there are provisions for people still covered by an employer plan past the usual age. Late enrollment without a qualifying reason can attach a penalty that persists rather than expiring, which is a very different kind of mistake from paying too much for a year. There are also rules about coordinating an employer plan with Medicare that determine which pays first, and getting that wrong creates billing problems rather than savings.

None of the specific dates, durations, or penalty formulas belong in an article, because they change and because the exceptions are where people actually live. What belongs in your plan is a calendar entry, placed well before your eligibility date, to work through the timing with Medicare’s official information and a licensed counsellor. Our explainer on full retirement age covers a related trap, which is that the Social Security timetable and the Medicare timetable are separate and do not line up.

Phase three: long term care as a separate risk

The single most common planning error covered in this walkthrough is assuming Medicare handles long-term care. It largely does not, and the reason is structural rather than accidental. Medicare is designed around medical treatment: diagnosing, treating, and recovering. Long-term care is custodial: help with bathing, dressing, eating, mobility, and supervision, over months or years, often without any acute medical event driving it.

Medicare can cover skilled nursing care for a limited period after a qualifying hospital stay, and that limited benefit is the source of most of the confusion, because it looks like coverage until you read how narrow it is. Extended custodial care is generally paid privately, through a dedicated insurance product bought in advance, or by a state programme that becomes available once assets have been spent down below a threshold. That last route is not a plan; it is what happens when there was no plan.

Treating this as a separate line has a second benefit. It stops long-term care from being quietly absorbed into an averaged healthcare number, where its size disappears. A risk that might cost nothing and might cost several hundred thousand dollars does not average usefully, and averaging it is how it ends up invisible.

What long term care costs in illustrative terms

Duration is the variable that matters most, and it is the one you cannot know. So the useful exercise is not to predict a duration but to price several and decide which one you want to be able to absorb.

At an illustrative $6,000 a month for one person, a single year is $72,000, two and a half years is $180,000, and four years is $288,000. Those are the three long-term care rows in the chart above, and the spread between them is the whole planning problem in one line. The monthly figure is itself a placeholder that varies enormously by setting, because care at home, care in an assisted living community, and care in a skilled nursing facility are three different prices, and the difference between regions can be larger than the difference between settings.

For a couple, there is a further consideration that averaged figures hide entirely: the risk applies to each person separately, and one person needing care while the other continues to live independently means running two households’ worth of cost at once. Any planning number that quietly assumes one event per household is understating the exposure. Get real local quotes for the settings you would actually consider, and talk the structure through with a licensed insurance professional.

Three ways people plan for long term care

There are three broad routes and each has real drawbacks, which is why there is no consensus answer.

Self-funding means holding assets specifically earmarked against the risk. The advantage is complete flexibility and nothing wasted if care is never needed, since the money stays yours. The drawback is that the sum required is large, it has to sit in something reasonably accessible, and it constrains what the rest of the plan can do for decades.

Traditional standalone insurance means paying premiums for a benefit that pays out only if care is needed. The advantage is leverage: a modest annual premium buys access to a large benefit. The drawbacks are that premiums are not always fixed and can be raised, that the benefit is lost entirely if care is never required, and that qualifying for a policy depends on your health when you apply rather than when you need it.

Hybrid products combine a life insurance or annuity contract with a long-term care benefit, so that if care is never needed the value passes on rather than evaporating. That removes the use-it-or-lose-it objection, which is why they have become popular. The drawbacks are that they typically require a much larger commitment of capital up front, they are harder to compare against each other, and the effective return on the non-care outcome is usually modest. Naming or recommending any specific product is outside what this article can responsibly do; pricing all three routes with a licensed insurance professional is the actual next step.

The health savings account as the purpose built vehicle

If healthcare is the expense, the health savings account is the container built for it, and it is treated more favourably than any other account in the system for this specific purpose. Money goes in without income tax, it grows without tax while invested, and it comes out without tax when used for qualified medical expenses. Most accounts give you one or two of those three stages. This one gives all three, which is why it deserves more attention than it usually gets in a retirement plan.

Eligibility is conditional rather than universal, and it depends on being covered by a qualifying high-deductible health plan rather than on your income or your employer. Contribution limits are set annually, there is an additional allowance once you reach a certain age, and the eligibility rules interact with Medicare enrollment in a way covered below. Our explainer on what an HSA is covers the account mechanics, and our comparison of HSAs and FSAs covers the important structural difference, which is that HSA money is yours permanently and rolls forward while an FSA generally does not.

Confirm current eligibility conditions, limits, and qualified-expense definitions with the IRS and your plan administrator rather than relying on any figure quoted here, since all of them are revised.

Why investing the HSA rather than spending it is the lever

Here is where most people leave the value on the table. An HSA used as a spending account, where you contribute during the year and pay this year’s bills out of it, captures the tax deduction and nothing else. The balance never grows because it never sits still. That is a genuine benefit, but it is a small one relative to what the account can do.

Put illustrative numbers on the difference. Contribute $4,000 a year for 20 years. Spend it each year and you have taken $80,000 of deductions, worth an illustrative $17,600 at a 22 percent rate, with a zero balance at the end. Invest it instead, pay the year’s medical bills from ordinary savings, and at an assumed 6 percent that same $80,000 of contributions grows to roughly $147,100. The difference, about $67,100, is entirely growth that the spending approach never earns.

That $147,100 covers roughly 33 percent of the $448,400 Medicare-years line used throughout this walkthrough, which reframes the account from a convenience into a serious pillar of the plan. There is a further point about efficiency: because a qualified withdrawal is untaxed, an HSA dollar does the work of about $1.28 of taxable-account money at an illustrative 22 percent rate. The cost of the strategy is real, though. It requires paying medical bills from other money for years, which not everybody can do, and that constraint is the honest reason many people cannot use the lever.

Three glass jars of increasing size standing on a wooden shelf against a blue-grey wall, each holding more coins than the one before it
The same contributions produce very different results depending on whether the account is allowed to sit and grow or is emptied each year to pay current bills.

The rule that ends HSA contributions

There is one mechanism worth flagging because it catches people who are working past the usual eligibility age. Enrolling in Medicare generally ends your ability to make new HSA contributions, and there can be a retroactive element to when that enrollment is treated as beginning, which means contributions made in the months before enrollment can become a problem to unwind.

The important consequence is that the window for building an HSA has an end date attached to a decision you may make for entirely unrelated reasons. Anyone planning to work past the standard eligibility age, or to delay enrollment while covered by an employer plan, should get the sequencing right before contributing rather than afterwards, because fixing an excess contribution is more painful than avoiding one.

Money already inside the account keeps its treatment after that point. You cannot add more, but the balance stays invested and qualified withdrawals stay untaxed, which is precisely why the account is a retirement healthcare vehicle rather than only a current-year one. The rules here are IRS territory and change, so confirm the current position with a qualified tax professional before you schedule an enrollment date around it. Our explainer on required minimum distributions covers the other account-timing rule that tends to arrive in the same decade of life.

Putting a number in the plan

All of the above is context. What a plan needs is a number, and the honest method for producing one under real uncertainty has four steps.

Choose a per-person annual placeholder for the Medicare years. This walkthrough uses $7,000, which becomes $14,000 for a couple. Choose a monthly placeholder for any bridge years, here $800 per person, and multiply by the number of months between your retirement date and your coverage start date. Choose a separate contingency figure for long-term care based on a duration you decide you want to be able to absorb, here $180,000 for one person at two and a half years. Then give the first two of those their own inflation assumption rather than the plan’s general one.

Run those and the illustrative couple in this article carries roughly $57,600 across the bridge, roughly $448,400 across 25 Medicare years with escalation, and a separate $180,000 contingency sitting outside both. The two spending lines total about $506,000. At an illustrative 4 percent initial withdrawal rate, the $14,000 first-year household figure alone implies about $350,000 of portfolio dedicated to healthcare, which is the number that makes the point. Feed your own version through the calculator to see what accumulating that slice requires.

Why healthcare inflation deserves its own assumption

A retirement projection that applies one inflation rate to every line is doing something subtly wrong, because healthcare has generally risen faster than the broad basket of goods that headline inflation measures. Our explainer on what inflation is covers why a single headline rate is an average across very different components, and healthcare sits at the fast end of that spread.

The planning response is not to predict the gap precisely. It is to give the line its own rate and see how much the answer depends on it. This walkthrough uses an illustrative 3 percent general rate and an illustrative 5 percent healthcare rate, a gap of two percentage points. Applied to the $14,000 household figure across 25 years, that gap adds roughly $98,400 to a line that would otherwise total $350,000, an increase of about 28 percent produced by nothing but an assumption.

The per-person view makes it vivid. A $7,000 figure growing at 5 percent reaches about $10,900 by year ten, about $17,700 by year twenty, and about $22,600 by year twenty-five. At 3 percent it would reach about $14,200 by year twenty-five instead. That gap of roughly $8,300 per person per year, arriving in your mid-eighties, is the reason this assumption is not a detail.

Stress testing the number you chose

A placeholder you have not tested is just a guess with better presentation. Testing it means deliberately breaking it in three specific ways and looking at what happens to the plan.

First, raise the annual figure by half and see whether the plan still works. If $14,000 becomes $21,000 for the household, does the withdrawal rate move somewhere you are uncomfortable with? Second, add the long-term care contingency as an actual event rather than a reserve, timed late in the plan when the portfolio is smallest, and see what it does. Third, widen the inflation gap from two points to three and re-run the total, because that assumption is the one you have least basis for.

If the plan survives all three, your placeholder is doing its job. If it fails one of them, you have learned something concrete and actionable, which is far more useful than a number that has never been challenged. This is also the point at which the sequencing of income matters, because the same total spending is easier or harder to fund depending on when it arrives relative to the market and to when benefits start. Our walkthrough on estimating Social Security covers the income side of that timing question.

A stethoscope resting on a thick stack of lined pale blue papers beside a large-button calculator on a white desk near a bright window
Pricing this line properly is arithmetic plus judgement. The arithmetic is the easy half, and it is the half a calculator can do for you.

A rough sequence by distance from retirement

The work looks different depending on how far out you are, and separating it that way stops the whole thing feeling like one impossible task.

More than ten years out, the only lever that really matters is capacity. Contribute to an HSA if you are eligible, invest the balance rather than spending it, and let the compounding do the work described above. Nothing else you decide now will survive a decade of rule changes intact, so building the pot is the entire assignment.

Within five years, the work becomes concrete. Price real coverage options for any bridge years, since that is the number most likely to change your retirement date. Model the income-tested effects of your withdrawal and conversion plans, because those years feed the lookback. Price long-term care routes while you are still likely to qualify for the ones that involve underwriting, since that door narrows with age rather than opening.

In the year or two before eligibility, the work is calendar work. Confirm the current windows and the coordination rules, understand the enrollment consequences of any employer plan you are still on, settle the HSA contribution question before it becomes an excess to unwind, and make the coverage design decision with a licensed counsellor rather than from a comparison table. Our walkthrough on catching up on retirement savings covers the parallel work on the portfolio side in the same window.

Where a calculator helps and where it cannot

A calculator is genuinely good at one half of this problem. Given a placeholder, an escalation rate, a horizon, and a return assumption, it will tell you what the total comes to and what accumulating that slice of the portfolio requires. It will also let you move one input at a time and watch the answer respond, which is the fastest way to learn which assumptions actually carry the result and which are decoration. On the numbers here, the inflation gap and the long-term care duration carry far more weight than the exact annual placeholder does.

What no calculator can do is supply the placeholder honestly. It does not know your state, your plan options, your health, your family history, or what care costs where you would actually receive it. It does not know which coverage route suits your providers or how a conversion will interact with a threshold that has not been published yet. Treat the output as a way of understanding sensitivity rather than as a forecast, and be suspicious of any tool that presents a single confident number for a question this uncertain. The calculator here is deliberately about the growth side, which is the part where arithmetic is genuinely the whole answer.

Who to talk to and what to ask

Three different professionals cover three different parts of this, and asking one of them a question that belongs to another is a common way to get a confident wrong answer.

A licensed insurance counsellor prices coverage. Ask what the real options are for bridge years in your area, what the total expected cost of each is rather than the premium, how the supplemental and all-in-one routes compare for your providers and travel patterns, and what the practical consequences are of switching later. Many areas have free counselling services for Medicare questions specifically, which is worth finding before paying for the same advice.

A qualified tax professional handles the income side. Ask how a planned conversion or a large gain would interact with the income-tested thresholds in the lookback years, and how to size a conversion to stop below one. A fee-only advisor handles the plan as a whole, including whether the contingency should be self-funded or insured; our explainer on fiduciary financial advisors covers how to tell whose advice is conflicted. And Medicare’s own official information is the authority on what Medicare covers and costs, which is worth going to directly rather than through a summary written by someone selling something.

The bottom line

Healthcare is the largest genuinely uncertain expense in a retirement plan, and treating it as one line is the mistake that makes it unmanageable. Split it into three: the bridge years before Medicare, which cost the most per year and are the least planned for; the Medicare years, which hold the largest total simply by being the longest and where your coverage design and your income two years earlier both move the bill; and long-term care, which Medicare largely does not cover and which belongs in the plan as a sized contingency rather than an averaged expense. On the illustrative couple used throughout, that came to roughly $57,600 across the bridge, roughly $448,400 across 25 Medicare years, and a separate $180,000 contingency, with about $98,400 of the Medicare total created by nothing but a two-point inflation gap. Build the HSA and invest it rather than spending it, because $4,000 a year for 20 years reaching about $147,100 is the one lever here that is fully within your control. Then stress-test whatever number you chose instead of trusting it, and take the coverage, tax, and care decisions to people licensed to give advice on them. The calculator will handle the compounding while you do the harder half.


SumLoft writes about how financial arithmetic behaves, and none of the above is medical advice, insurance advice, tax advice, or a recommendation about any coverage choice or product. Every premium, surcharge, monthly cost, care price, inflation rate, contribution figure, and total in this walkthrough was invented to demonstrate a mechanism and should not be read as a current price or a current rule. Medicare parts, premiums, surcharge tiers, enrollment windows, penalty provisions, health savings account eligibility, and contribution limits are set by federal agencies, revised regularly, and vary by where you live and what plans are offered there. Verify anything you intend to act on with Medicare’s official information, price real coverage with a licensed insurance counsellor, and work through the tax and long-term care questions with a qualified professional who knows your full situation.

Frequently asked questions

How much should I budget for healthcare in retirement?

There is no single correct number, because the answer depends on where you live, when you stop working, which coverage you choose, and your own health. What a plan needs is a defensible placeholder rather than a forecast. This walkthrough uses an illustrative $7,000 per person per year once Medicare coverage has started, escalating faster than general prices, and an illustrative $800 per person per month during any years you must cover yourself beforehand. Treat both as starting placeholders to replace with quotes from your own area, and confirm current premium and cost-sharing figures at Medicare's official information source before you rely on them.

What does Medicare actually cover?

Medicare is built in parts rather than as a single policy. One part covers inpatient hospital care, another covers outpatient and physician services, prescription drug coverage is a separate layer, and you then choose between a supplemental policy that sits alongside the original parts or an all-in-one alternative that bundles them through a private plan. Each of those choices carries its own premium and its own cost-sharing structure, which is why two people the same age can pay very different amounts. Medicare's own official information is the place to confirm what each part includes and what it costs in the year you enroll, because the figures are reset annually.

Does Medicare pay for long-term care?

Largely no, and that gap is the single most common planning error covered here. Medicare is built around medical treatment, so it can cover skilled care after a qualifying hospital stay for a limited period, but it is not designed to fund extended custodial help with daily living such as bathing, dressing, or supervision. That kind of care is generally paid privately, through a dedicated insurance product, or by a state programme once assets fall below a threshold. Because the rules differ by state and change over time, confirm your own situation with a licensed insurance counsellor or an elder law professional rather than assuming coverage exists.

What is the two-year lookback on Medicare premiums?

Premiums for some Medicare parts carry an income-related surcharge, and the income used to set it is generally taken from a tax return filed about two years earlier. The practical effect is that a decision you make at one age can raise a bill you receive two years later. A large Roth conversion, a property sale, an exercised stock option, or a one-off capital gain can all push a single year's income above a threshold and trigger a surcharge you had not planned for. The thresholds and surcharge amounts are set annually, so check the current tiers with Medicare rather than working from any figure quoted in an article.

Is an HSA good for retirement healthcare costs?

A health savings account is the most tax-efficient vehicle available for this specific expense, because contributions, growth, and withdrawals for qualified medical costs are all treated favourably rather than only one or two of those stages. The lever most people miss is treating it as a long-term investment account instead of a spending account. In an illustrative case, $4,000 a year invested for 20 years at an assumed 6 percent grows to roughly $147,100 against $80,000 of contributions, and that growth is only available if the bills were paid from other money along the way. Eligibility rules, contribution limits, and the age at which contributions must stop all change, so confirm the current rules before acting.

How do I cover health insurance if I retire before Medicare?

The bridge years are the expensive and least-planned-for phase, and there are broadly four routes: continuing an employer plan for a limited period after leaving, joining a spouse's or partner's employer plan, buying an individual policy on the open market, or taking a part-time role that carries coverage. Each has a very different price and a very different set of conditions attached. Costs on the individual market are often income-tested, which means the withdrawal and conversion decisions you make in those years can change what you pay for coverage. A licensed insurance counsellor can price the real options in your area, which no calculator can do.

How fast do healthcare costs rise compared with general inflation?

Medical costs have generally risen faster than the broad basket of goods and services that headline inflation measures, which is why a retirement plan that applies one inflation rate to everything understates this line. The honest planning response is to give healthcare its own assumption rather than a precise prediction. This walkthrough uses an illustrative general rate of 3 percent and an illustrative healthcare rate of 5 percent, a gap of two percentage points, purely to show the shape of the effect. Over 25 years those two points add roughly $98,400 to an illustrative household line that would otherwise total $350,000.

Should I buy long-term care insurance?

That is a decision for you and a licensed insurance professional, not something an article can answer, and every route has real drawbacks. Self-funding requires holding a large sum you may never need. Traditional standalone policies can carry premiums the insurer may raise, and the benefit is lost if care is never required. Hybrid products that combine life insurance or an annuity with a care benefit remove that use-it-or-lose-it problem but tie up more capital up front and are more complex to compare. The right answer depends on your assets, your family situation, and your tolerance for the specific risk, so price all three routes rather than assuming one.

Sam Ortega · Finance educator

Sam builds finance tools and writes the explainers that go with them, turning intimidating math into something you can reason about.

Hamza Hai, Editor
Edited by Hamza Hai, MBA · Editor

Hamza Hai is the editor of SumLoft. She holds an MBA and reviews the site's articles against our editorial standards, checking that every figure is labelled for what it is, that nothing is presented as verified fact without a source the reader can check, and that the writing stays useful to a non-specialist.

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